The Trend is Your Friend

The “trend is your friend” is an old stock market truism. The current trend is down as prices on most series continue a slow descent - down about 10% from two years ago. I track coins I’ve purchased in the last two years and prices are down for many although there are a few bright spots including top pop CAC coins but even they are not immune. The best predictor of where values will be next month is the trend over the preceding months.

The Christopher Collection is still buying but not aggressively. If the trend continues the best strategy will likely be not attempting to time the market but steadily purchasing the absolute best quality coins. Even in CAC certified coins there are wide differences in eye appeal. Observe the coin below.

1935-D MS67+RD CAC

This is what the CC calls a “no beard, no chest” Lincoln.

This Lincoln has few discernible beard details and the chest fades noticeably the closer you get to the date. This is not uncommon even in high grade Lincolns but you need not settle for this as nicer coins are available. Not a coin I would buy despite the high grade and CAC sticker. Since coin prices will likely be lower in coming months patience and our good friend the trend will guide me to a 1935-D I really desire.

What to Look for When a Collection Comes to Auction

As I write this there is a top Lincoln registry set up for auction on HA. It is not identified as a collection but with dozens of coins labeled as from the retired Jerald L Martin Collection it is a safe assumption. All show to be part of an unidentified PCGS registry set so we know the seller wants privacy otherwise HA would be trumpeting the sale. These coins are so premium it’s likely several will approach $100,000 at auction hammer. Besides pictures HA has prepared videos on many of the coins which I have never seen before. UPDATE: Many of these coins ended up in the D.L. Hansen top registry set.

Most of the coins have no auction history on PCGS and those that do have nothing newer than 2005. Since there is currently no Jerald L. Martin Collection on PCGS we have to assume these coins were purchased (inherited?) as a set by the current owner. Sadly, many of these coins will sell for a fraction of what was paid for them as these coins were purchased in the market highs of the 90’s and early 2000’s.

I note with great interest that almost none of the holders are CAC stickered. Those that are have old faded stickers. Most old collections like this going to auction would routinely be submitted to CAC. Either the owner (or his heirs) is in a hurry to sell, is a CAC hater, or the coins just aren’t worthy of a green bean. When you get to grades of 67 for these very early Lincoln’s a CAC sticker can prove elusive but you would expect to see at least a few new stickers if the entire collection was submitted. A sharp eyed bidder could spot a CAC worthy coin and not pay a CAC price.

Almost none of the coins have a plus grade. This and the low serial numbers tell you most of these coins were graded before the plus grade was available in 2010. It is hard to imagine HA would not advise that the collection be submitted to PCGS for reconsideration and a possible major bump in price so we have to assume the owner did not consent. Again, opportunity awaits for an astute bidder to buy a coin with upgrade potential.

We now know three things, all of which help the potential bidder. The owner does not want publicity so potential buyers may not be aware of the sale. The coins likely were not submitted to CAC and finally it is doubtful they were submitted to PCGS for reconsideration. HA would advance cash on a collection like this so a need for funds would not be a driver for this state of affairs. To me this screams of someone wanting to dispose of a collection quickly and completely which strongly suggests an estate sale.